By Justin O’Neill
Theme for this week: Stability Amid Challenges
This week’s housing market numbers reflect a steady yet cautious outlook—mortgage rates remain near 7%, inventory is declining seasonally but up year-over-year, and prices continue to rise despite weakening demand, emphasizing resilience in a challenging market.
With that, let’s dive into mortgage rates, inventory, demand and pricing for the week of November 18th, 2024.
1. Mortgage Rates
- Current Rate: 6.99%
Believe it or not, this could be worse when comparing the spreads between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield. - Looking Ahead:
A 0.25% rate cut is still expected at the December Federal Reserve meeting. However, don’t expect this to lower mortgage rates significantly—it will likely keep them steady, just below 7%.
2. Inventory
- Current Market Supply:
- 722,000 single-family homes are currently on the market—an increase from last week and 27% higher than this time last year.
- Trends:
- Inventory peaked in October and is now on a seasonal decline, except in a few areas, Florida being the most notable.
- We’re still below pre-pandemic inventory levels, but projections suggest we’ll reach 2019 numbers by 2025.
3. Demand
- Pending Contracts:
- Over 50,000 contracts went pending this week, a 3% rebound from the election-week slowdown.
- Market Dynamics:
- Demand is weakening, and the market shows signs of contraction.
- Analysts predict a sales increase in 2025, though expectations have tempered compared to earlier in the year.
4. Pricing
- Median Sale Price:
- This week’s median price on homes that went into contract is $388,000, unchanged from last week and 4% higher than the same time last year.
- Price Trends:
- Historically, home prices climb 5% annually, making it rare for prices to decline.
- Despite challenging conditions, prices continue to rise and are expected to rise by 3-4% next year, underscoring the difficulty of timing the market.
Key Takeaway: Buy or sell when you’re ready—trying to time the market rarely works out.
That’s it for this week’s update! If you have any questions or want more details, feel free to reach out at the emails below. We are out next week for Thanksgiving so we’ll see everyone back here for the week of December 2nd.
Take care!
Contact Me: joneill@flyhomes.com
Learn More About Flyhomes: hello@flyhomes.com
Sources:
- Altos Research
- HousingWire
- St. Louis Federal Reserve