Hello! Welcome back to Flight School – Aerial View, where we take a quick look at the latest market updates.
Each week, we gather and summarize data from the leading analysts and economists in the real estate industry to provide you with a snapshot of what’s happening in four important topics: mortgage rates, inventory, demand and pricing. Below are some key insights for the week of November 6th, 2023.
Beginning with mortgage rates, where we saw the biggest one-week drop to rates in almost a year. The move from 8% a few weeks back to under 7.5% is breathing some much needed life back into this historically slow market. The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.4444% as of earlier today, according to Optimal Blue, down from last week’s 7.76%, and 8% the week prior to that.
So how is the drop in rates contributing to inventory? It grew again this week, by less than 1%, to 567,000 single family homes. The data is showing this is likely the week that inventory finally peaks for the year. This week there were 62,000 new listings, 9,000 of which went into contract immediately. The number of homes listed is roughly the same amount hitting the market this time last year.
Shifting to our third topic, demand, where we are on pace to again eclipse the total volume of sales from last year. This is notable because we’ve been behind all year. We’ve now caught up with demand because we aren’t seeing the same type of seasonal decline that you would in a typical year. Experts believe that one reason may be because consumers have overcome the mortgage rate shock, which could pick up even further in Q1 if mortgage rates stay in the 7’s, but this new consumer confidence is fragile and critically dependent on rates.
And lastly, pricing, where the median price for a single family home this week was $430,000. There is a big dip in prices coming, specifically for new listings that come on during holidays, which is normal, but it’ll be very interesting to see how quickly prices bounce back after the holidays end. Longer term, there continues to be no indicators that prices will drop in any meaningful way in 2024 – – so for all the clients and prospective clients sitting on the sidelines, the data tells us that home prices are going to continue to climb for the foreseeable future.
WRAP UP
That’s it for this week, be sure to check in next week for another market snapshot! And as always, reach out now to learn even more about how Flyhomes can help you on your home buying and selling journey.
Sources:
- Altos Research
- Optimal Blue
- HousingWire
- Realtor.com
- Industry Relations (Podcast)
